The Stock Market: The Stock Market Crash in the Stock Market

By Associated Press Washington post, Published: January 6

stock market reviews

NEW YORK — Everybody knows that January predicts the stock market’s direction for the year and that the best time to sell stocks is at their spring peak. And among stock market experts, it’s a sure bet that the market will soar in the year before an election.

But what passes for stock market wisdom is suspect when given a closer look. The most common error comes when people spot two events and assume that one causes the other.

And it drives economists, math geeks and plenty of money managers nuts.

“If you look at enough data in enough different ways, you’re going to find something that isn’t really true,” says Edward Keon, who leads a mathematics team at Prudential Financial.

The same seasonal patterns seem to pop up year after year. Some are valuable and some meaningless, Keon says — like saying stocks tend to rise or fall depending on the month, the temperature in New York City or who wins the Super Bowl.;
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The merciless arithmetic of investing in commodity producers is imposing itself on many a portfolio: Copper down a few percentage points; copper stocks cut in half. It’s nice when the swing works in your favour; when it’s conspiring against your wealth, it’s an agony not even the Marquis de Sade could dream up.

The bad news is that there’s good reason to think that commodity prices are ready to wither even more. Europe is a disaster, the U.S. is too, and China’s economy is cooling fast. Since resources are priced at the margin – that is, the last unit of demand sets the price – it doesn’t take much of a slowdown to trigger drastic price cuts.

Commodity prices, as more than a few high-profile market watchers have pointed out, are way higher than their long-term trend lines suggest they should be. And while it’s true that there are more people clamouring for them today, economies always crest and trough. So commodity prices could be at risk of a steep correction even if the longer-term outlook is favourable.

Depressed yet? Don’t be. There are always opportunities, even in a market where 70 per cent of everything is somehow related to resources prices. Keep in mind, for instance, that some companies spend money on commodities rather than earning revenues from them. These producers will benefit – in some cases, a lot – from falling prices. Read more »

U.S. stocks sank in a thinly traded session Wednesday as weakness in the technology sector dragged the market lower.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was down 47 points, or 0.4%, in afternoon trading. The S&P 500 (SPX) eased 5 points, or less than 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) fell 27 points, or 1%.

Shares of big technology companies were among the weakest performers. Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) plunged 10% after the computer maker issued a disappointing sales outlook late Monday. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) tumbled over 4%.“Technology is not cooperating,” said David Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams. “The Nasdaq is bringing us lower.”

Stocks opened higher following upbeat quarterly results from Target. But the gains faded in the afternoon, and investors gravitated toward more defensive stocks.Telecommunications companies Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) and AT&T (T, Fortune 500) both added about 1.5%.

Shares of financial firms, which have underperformed the market this year, were also a bright spot. JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) all gained over 1%.

Overall, traders remain wary given the uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy and the challenges facing European leaders as they struggle to resolve the festering debt crisis hanging over the euro zone. Read more »

US stocks have resumed their rally after a series of earnings reports came in better than expected.

Target Corp, Staples Inc and Dell Inc all reported earnings for last quarter that were above analysts’ forecasts.

Companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 are on track to report higher profits for a ninth straight quarter.

But economic growth is weak around the world, and some economists worry that a second recession may becoming. That could pull down future results.

Target and Staples both gave profit forecasts that were above Wall Street’s expectations, but Dell cut its prediction for revenue growth this year.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 95 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 11,501 in the first hour of trading overnight. The S&P 500 rose 14, or 1.2 per cent, to 1207. The Nasdaq composite rose 24, or 1 per cent, to 2548.

Stocks were up for the fourth day out of five. The market fell yesterday on concerns about Europe’s ability to contain its debt problems.

Computer maker Dell said yesterday its profit rose 63 per cent last quarter after businesses and government agencies bought more machines. But it also cited “a more uncertain demand environment” when it cut its forecast for annual revenue growth to a range of 1 per cent to 5 per cent. That’s down from an earlier growth forecast for 5 per cent to 9 per cent. Dell stock fell 6.4 per cent overnight. Read more »

THE Australian share market closed higher today, buoyed by bargain-hunters who helped to make up ground from the previous day’s loss.

Official figures showing slower than expected wages growth helped calm inflationary expectations and also provided a boost for investors.

At 16:15 (AEST) the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was 56.6 points, or 1.33 per cent, higher at 4,303.9, while the broader All Ordinaries index was 54.5 points, or 1.26 per cent. up at 4,371.8.

On the ASX 24, the September share price index futures contract was up 48 points at 4,276, with 54,777 contracts traded.

Macquarie Private Wealth director Lucinda Chan said Australian Bureau of Statistics’ wages data for the June quarter grew by a less than expected pace.

She said this showed an easing of inflationary pressures and made it more likely the Reserve Bank of Australia would keep interest rates on hold next month.

“That’s one reason why the market got a little bit excited today, plus we had some strong earnings from companies,” she said.

Ms Chan said that with world markets slowing and a resolution to the US and European debt crises still a long way off, any greater gains on the market would be limited.

“We lost a lot over the last week, a huge amount in the market. We’ve seen a bit of bargain-hunting today and that has lifted the market. We’ve recovered the losses we made yesterday,” Ms Chan said. Read more »

THE Australian share market recovered early heavy losses to be only slightly lower at noon, after a negative lead from global markets overnight was offset by better-than-expected results from Telstra.At 12pm (AEST), the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 1.8 points, or 0.04 per cent, at 4139.5, while the broader All Ordinaries index was down 5.1 points, or 0.12 per cent, to 4202.3.

On the ASX 24, the September share price index futures contract was up seven points at 4101 points with 48,575 contracts traded.Austock Securities strategist Michael Heffernan said the market had been buoyed by Telstra’s better-than-expected results offsetting the influence of an almost five per cent tumble by Wall Street overnight.

US stocks more than wiped out the gains of a rebound on Tuesday as European debt troubles and worries of a new US recession kept investors nervous.

French bankers and officials scrambled to calm nerves on Thursday after two days of whipsaw trading that saw their banks’ market value fall and rise by billions of euros.By late in the day those efforts appeared to settle markets jittery about the health of French banks and the heavily indebted U.S. and European economies. Economists said the rebound remained very fragile.

The leaders of the eurozone’s biggest economies, Germany and France, announced they will meet Tuesday to discuss solutions to Europe’s financial difficulties.French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s office said that the two will come up with “joint proposals” on the governance of the eurozone before the end of the summer. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman said the meeting would focus on suggestions for how to improve the zone’s economic policy and crisis management.

Bank of France head Christian Noyer blamed “unfounded rumors” for plunges in the shares of top banks, including Societe Generale and BNP Paribas, and said the country’s financial institutions were sound. The country’s market regulator warned of sanctions against anyone who fuels or profits from rumors that fed the sell-off

Noyer said that French banks’ first-half earnings “confirmed their solidity in a difficult economic environment” and that the banks’ capital cushions were healthy.

The stocks continued to drop until strong U.S. jobs data helped propell solid gains on Wall Street late in the European trading day. BNP Paribas closed up 0.3 percent and Societe Generale rose 3.7 percent. Read more »

Economists looked by MarketWatch had expected the Labor Department to report an increase in initial claims, to 410,000.Trading in U.S. stock futures followed a choppy pattern with investors on edge after the previous session’s plunge, while shares of Cisco Systems Inc. CSCO +16.10% rallied in premarket trade on better-than-expected results.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJ1U +2.98% fell 49 points to 10,676 at last check. Trading was very volatile and sentiment was fragile; Dow futures had been up more than 200 points earlier.Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index SP1U +0.37% slipped 5.50 points to 1,118, while Nasdaq 100 futures ND1U +0.59% dropped 1.75 points to 2,083.25.

“Market jitters remain extremely high and are even taking on near-absurd proportions,” said analysts at Raiffeisen Research in a note.The blue-chip Dow industrials DJIA +3.31% sank 519.83 points, or 4.6%, on Wednesday — the third consecutive trading day when the benchmark has swung more than 400 points.

Asian equity markets ended mixed overnight. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.6%, while China’s Shanghai Composite index rose 1.3%.In Europe, stock markets turned lower in late-morning trading. Shares of French banks were hit once again, with Societe Generale FR:GLE +3.70% down 7.4% in Paris. Read more »

Roland Randall, strategist at TD Securities, said the U.S. downgrade was “another tick in the box for the long-term bears, and that’s the real concern — that it makes people a bit more pessimistic on the long-term economic outlook.”

China’s Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -3.79% , South Korea’s Kospi KR:0100 -3.82% and Taiwan’s Taiex each fell 3.8% to finish at 2,526.82, 1,869.45 and 7,552.80, respectively.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO -2.91% AU:XJO -2.91% gave up 2.9% to 3,986.10 and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 -2.18% closed down 2.2% at 9,097.56, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -2.18% shed 2.2% to finish at 20,490.57.

“Rising risk premium/risk aversion due to what’s going [on] in the U.S. and Europe“ was behind the sharp sell-off in China over the past few days, said Jim Chen, investment manager of Baring Asset Management’s Greater China Fund.

Monday’s performance marks another day of heavy losses in Asia. Last week, Taiwan’s Taiex sank more than 9% and the Kospi lost 8.9% in Seoul. Also last week, Japanese shares had dropped more than 5%, Hong Kong shares fell almost 7% and Australian shares lost in excess of 7%. Read more »

US Stock market futures pointed to a sharply lower open on Wall Street Monday following on from last weeks downgrade of America’s credit rating from triple-A for the first time in history by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P).

S&P came in for significant criticism from US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the rating agency showed “terrible judgment” in lowering the US government’s credit rating, forcing S&P to defend its position on Monday.

Geithner said the agency’s decision showed a “stunning lack of knowledge” about the basic maths used to develop the government’s budget.

David Beers, global head of sovereign ratings at S&P, defended the rating agency’s position, despite the discovery of a $2 trillion error in the firm’s calculation of the projected debt to GDP ratio for the U.S.

“It is a complete mis-characterization on the Treasury’s part about what happened in that highly technical discussion,” Beers said. “These are large numbers…(but) even with these adjustments, the debt burden is rising so the substance of what we’re saying has not changed,” he told CNBC on Monday.

Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, however told CNBC there was no question that the United States’ credit rating was still triple-A, and that he was not changing his mind about US Treasurys based on S&P’s downgrade.

“If anything, it may change my opinion on S&P,” Buffet added. Read more »